China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President Lai Ching-te's upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled U.S. transit as a pretext, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.

Taiwan’s president set off on a mission on Saturday to shore up relations with some of his island democracy’s shrinking band of diplomatic allies: three tiny Pacific Island nations that have taken an outsize importance in Taiwan’s struggle against Chinese efforts to push it off the international stage.

The United States is set to host Taiwan President Lai Ching-te during stopovers in Hawaii and Guam as part of the first international trip of his tenure, defying protests from China. Lai, who took office in May,